Future heat waves hazard
A global dataset at 0.1° degrees resolution of six heat wave hazards indicators from five climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sith Assessment report (AR6). The time resolution is annual from 1981 to 2100.
Heat waves dataset specifications
| Specification | Description |
| Experiment | CMIP6 |
| Scenarios | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5, SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6. |
| Climate Models | The 5 models selected by the ISIMIP initiative: IPSL-CM6A-LR GFDL-ESM4, UKESM1-0-LL MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0. |
| Spatial Resolution | 0.1° x 0.1° Global |
| Temporal resolution | Annual from 1981 to 2100 |
| Indicators | The heat wave hazard indicators are based on daily maximum and minimum surface temperature : – Heat wave duration index : Annual count of days with at least 3 consecutive days when daily maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile threshold, based on a reference period. – Heat wave duration periods: Annual count of heat wave events defined as periods of at least 3 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile threshold. – Consecutive summer days index: Maximum number of consecutive days in a year with maximum temperature above 25 °C. – Consecutive summer days periods: Annual count of periods with at least 2 consecutive days with maximum temperature above 25 °C. – Very warm days : Annual number of days with maximum temperature above the 90th percentile of the reference period. – Very warm nights: Annual number of days with minimum temperature above the 90th percentile of the reference period. |
| Format | Netcdf, other formats possible depending on data volume. |
Supplementary information
The Future Heat Waves dataset provides climate indicators that quantify the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events—such as heat waves and prolonged summer periods—under historical and future climate scenarios. Derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data, each metric is calculated using scientifically defined thresholds, including absolute values (e.g., above 25 °C) and percentiles (e.g., above the 90th percentile), and is based on downscaled outputs from CMIP6 global climate models, enabling analysis across multiple spatial and temporal scales
Dataset availability
The dataset can be delivered according to your specifications, contact us for a quote.
