Future cold and frost waves hazard dataset

A global dataset at 0.1° resolution of six cold and frost waves hazards indicators from five climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The time resolution is annual from 1981 to 2100.

Cold and frost waves dataset specifications

Specification	Description
Experiment	CMIP6
Scenarios	Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5, SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6.
Climate models	The 5 models selected by the ISIMIP initiative: IPSL-CM6A-LR, GFDL-ESM4, UKESM1-0-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0.
Spatial resolution	0.1° x 0.1° Global
Temporal resolution	Annual from 1981 to 2100
Indicators	The indicators are based on daily maximum and minimum surface temperature: Cold wave duration index: Annual number of days occurring within cold wave events, defined as periods of at least six consecutive days when the daily minimum temperature (Tmin) is more than 5°C below a reference value. The reference is computed as the 5-day running mean of daily minimum temperature over a fixed climatological reference period. The unit is days. Cold wave duration periods: Annual number of distinct cold wave events, defined as sequences of at least six consecutive days during which the daily minimum temperature (Tmin) remains more than 5°C below the 5-day running mean of the reference period. The unit is periods. Consecutive frost days index: Maximum number of consecutive days in a year with minimum temperature below 0°C. The unit is days. Consecutive frost days periods: Annual count of periods with at least 2 consecutive days with minimum temperature below 0°C. The unit is periods. Very cold days: Percentage of time when the daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) is below the 10th percentile of its reference distribution. The reference distribution is computed over a 30-year climatological period using a 5-day moving window centred on each calendar day. The unit is per cent. Very cold nights: Percentage of time when the daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) is below the 10th percentile of its reference distribution. The reference distribution is computed from a 30-year climatological period (e.g., 1981–2010) using a 5-day moving window centred on each calendar day. The unit is per cent
Format	NetCDF, other formats possible depending on data volume

Supplementary information

The dataset provides climate indicators that quantify the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme cold events—such as cold waves and frost periods—under historical and future climate scenarios. Derived from daily surface temperature data, each metric is calculated using scientifically defined thresholds, including absolute values (e.g., below 0°C) and percentiles (e.g., below the 10th percentile), and is based on downscaled simulations from CMIP6 global climate models, enabling analysis across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Future cold and frost waves dataset availability

The dataset can be delivered according to your specifications, contact us for a quote.

See all our climate projection data for the other hazards and the weather variables.