Future Tropical Cyclones hazard
Overview
A global dataset at 0.1° degrees resolution of three tropical cyclones indicators from four climate models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report (AR6). The time resolution is 28 return periods over historical (1980-2017) and near future (2015-2050) conditions.
Future Tropical Cyclones dataset specifications
| Specification | Description |
| Experiment | CMIP6-HighResMIP |
| Scenarios | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5. |
| Climate Models | The 4 models selected by the HighResMIP initiative: CMCC-CM2-VHR4, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, EC-Earth3P-HR, HadGEM3-GC31-HM |
| Spatial Resolution | 0.1° x 0.1° Global |
| Temporal resolution | Condition for two periods: Historical (1980-2017) and near future (2015-2050) |
| Indicators | Tropical storms wind hazard indicators are based on maximum 10-minute sustained wind speed at 10 meters by return period: – Ensemble mean: Central estimate of maximum wind speed averaged across models. The unit is m/s. – Future uncertainty range: Spread (25th–75th percentile) of maximum wind speed across models under future climate – conditions, reflecting inter-model variability. The unit is m/s. – Historical uncertainty range: Spread (5th–95th percentile) of maximum wind speed across models under the historical baseline, representing natural variability and model spread. The unit is m/s. Available return periods: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 7000, 8000, 9000, 10000. The unit is years. |
| Format | Netcdf, other formats possible depending on data volume |
Supplementary information
The Future Tropical Cyclones dataset provides return period estimates of maximum wind speeds from synthetic tropical cyclones, based on the STORM model (Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model). This global dataset simulates 10,000 years of tropical cyclone activity under present-day climate using historical data from IBTrACS and environmental conditions from ERA5, consistent with the HighResMIP framework. Wind speed values are provided for 28 return periods from 1 to 10,000 years, enabling high-resolution risk assessments in cyclone-prone coastal regions. For more details and direct access to the data check the reference:
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2020). Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM. Scientific Data, 7 (40). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2
Tropical Cyclones dataset availability
The dataset can be delivered according to your specifications, contact us for a quote.
