Future heat waves hazard
A global dataset at 0.1° degrees resolution of six heat wave hazards indicators from five climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sith Assessment report (AR6). The time resolution is annual from 1981 to 2100.
Heat waves dataset specifications
| Specification | Description |
| Experiment | CMIP6 |
| Scenarios | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5, SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6. |
| Climate Models | The 5 models selected by the ISIMIP initiative: IPSL-CM6A-LR GFDL-ESM4, UKESM1-0-LL MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0. |
| Spatial Resolution | 0.1° x 0.1° Global |
| Temporal resolution | Annual from 1981 to 2100 |
| Indicators | The heat wave hazard indicators are based on daily maximum and minimum surface temperature : – Heat wave duration index : Annual count of days occurring in intervals of at least 6 consecutive days when the daily maximum temperature (TX) exceeds the reference mean TXnorm by more than 5 °C. The reference TXnorm is calculated as the mean of daily maximum temperatures over a five-day window centred on each calendar day within a defined climate reference period. The unit is days. – Heat wave duration periods: Annual count of heat-wave events, each defined as a period of at least 6 consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature (TX) exceeds TXnorm + 5 °C, where TXnorm represents the mean of daily maximum temperatures over a five-day window centred on each calendar day within the climate reference period. The unit is periods. – Consecutive summer days index: Maximum number of consecutive days in a year with maximum temperature above 25 °C. The unit is days. – Consecutive summer days periods: Annual count of periods with at least 2 consecutive days with maximum temperature above 25 °C. The unit is periods. – Very warm days : Percentage of time when the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) exceeds the 90th percentile of its reference distribution. The reference distribution is computed from a 30-year climatological period using a 5-day moving window centered on each calendar day The unit is percent. – Very warm nights: Percentage of time when the daily minimum temperature (Tmin) exceeds the 90th percentile of its reference distribution. The reference distribution is computed from a 30-year climatological period using a 5-day moving window centered on each calendar day. The unit is percent. |
| Format | Netcdf, other formats possible depending on data volume. |
Supplementary information
The Future Heat Waves dataset provides climate indicators that quantify the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events—such as heat waves and prolonged summer periods—under historical and future climate scenarios. Derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data, each metric is calculated using scientifically defined thresholds, including absolute values (e.g., above 25 °C) and percentiles (e.g., above the 90th percentile), and is based on downscaled outputs from CMIP6 global climate models, enabling analysis across multiple spatial and temporal scales
Dataset availability
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