Future Tropical Cyclones hazard
Overview
A global dataset at 0.1° degrees resolution of three tropical cyclones indicators from four climate models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report (AR6). The time coverage for historical (1980-2017) and near future (2015-2050) conditions.
Future Tropical Cyclones dataset specifications
| Specification | Description |
| Experiment | CMIP6-HighResMIP |
| Scenarios | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5. |
| Climate Models | The 4 models selected by the HighResMIP initiative: CMCC-CM2-VHR4, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, EC-Earth3P-HR, HadGEM3-GC31-HM |
| Spatial Resolution | 0.1° x 0.1° Global |
| Temporal resolution | Condition for two time periods: Historical (1980-2017) and near future (2015-2050) |
| Indicators | Tropical cyclones hazard indicators are based on maximum 10-minute sustained wind speed at 10 meters by return period from 1,000 random realizations: – Mean: Mean of maximum wind speed. The unit is m/s. – Standard deviation: Standard deviation of maximum wind speed. The unit is m/s. – Spread range: Spread range of maximum wind speed. The unit is m/s. Available return periods: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 7000, 8000, 9000, 10000. The unit is years. Note: For the historical period the spread range corresponds to the confidence range given by the 95th and 5th percentiles of the realizations; for the future period the spread range corresponds to the uncertainty range given by the 75th and 25th percentiles or the realizations. |
| Format | Netcdf, other formats possible depending on data volume |
Supplementary information
The Future Tropical Cyclones dataset provides return period estimates of maximum wind speeds from synthetic tropical cyclones, based on the STORM model (Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model). This global dataset simulates 10,000 years of tropical cyclone activity under present-day climate using historical data from IBTrACS and environmental conditions from ERA5, consistent with the HighResMIP framework. Wind speed values are provided for 28 return periods from 1 to 10,000 years, enabling high-resolution risk assessments in cyclone-prone coastal regions. For more details and direct access to the data check the reference:
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2020). Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM. Scientific Data, 7 (40). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2
Tropical Cyclones dataset availability
The dataset is made available for convenience to our clients at no cost. The original data are accessible online but to make their use more practical we assembled the original single basins data files in one global file instead.
